In May 2026, INSEE estimates inflation at 2.4% over one year, after 2.2% in April, with energy as the main driver.
According to INSEE, which confirmed its provisional estimate on second reading (Informations Rapides n°140 of June 12, 2026), consumer prices increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May, compared to 2.2% in April. The institute attributes this acceleration to “the acceleration in energy prices, driven this month by an increase in gas prices” (+11.3% after -3.1% in April). At the same time, prices of services are accelerating “but to a lesser extent” (+2.1% after +1.8%), while food prices are slowing down slightly (+1.1% after +1.2%). Manufactured products (-0.6%) and tobacco (+3.2%) are evolving at the same pace as the previous month. Core inflation stood at 1.5%, after 1.2% in April. INSEE also indicates that the harmonized consumer price index increased by 2.8% year-on-year in May, after 2.5% in April.
Recent progress and provisional data
The immediate timeline shows inflation of +1.7% year-on-year in March, then +2.2% in April and +2.4% in May. Over one month, the index increased by +0.1% in May after +1.0% in April. INSEE confirmed these figures on June 12, 2026, after a first provisional estimate published on May 29.
In a September 2022 analysis (Insee Analyzes n°75), the institute estimated that, between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of 2022, the increase in energy prices had contributed to 3.1 points of inflation out of a total of 5.3%. Tariff shield measures had reduced this effect by half. The study also highlights that low-income households are more strongly affected by the increase in energy costs, with the shield particularly mitigating inflation for the lowest-income and the oldest.
