The Ifop-Fiducial poll reveals a historic dynamic for the nationalist camp, with Bardella in the lead, Philippe ahead of Attal, and a divided left.
Less than a year before the 2027 presidential election, the latest Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud Radio places Jordan Bardella in an unprecedented position of strength in the race for the Elysée. According to the different scenarios tested, the president of the National Rally would receive between 35% and 37% of voting intentions, compared to 32% for Marine Le Pen, whom he is therefore ahead of by 3 to 5 points. This score represents, virtually, around ten points more than the 23.15% of the votes collected by Marine Le Pen in the first round of 2022.
The National Rally (RN) is the big favorite, whoever wears its colors. If the qualification of the nationalist party in the second round is hardly in doubt, the gap is widening between its two leaders as July 7 approaches, the date on which Marine Le Pen will know her fate on appeal in the affair of the MEPs’ assistants. As if some of the voters were already anticipating her absence from the presidential race, the boss of the RN deputies is now left behind by her heir apparent, Jordan Bardella, to whom she will pass the torch in the event of a new conviction.
A sign of his dynamics, Jordan Bardella has gained 2 to 3 points since the previous wave, while Marine Le Pen gives up one. It even reaches its highest score (37%) when Gabriel Attal represents the central bloc, rather than Edouard Philippe, or when the non-Melenchonist left is united behind François Hollande. Also supported by Eric Zemmour in slight progress, credited with 3.5% to 6%, the nationalist bloc would represent around forty points in the first round. Unheard of for this political family under the Fifth Republic.
Philippe ahead of Attal, the classic right resists
Far behind Bardella, Edouard Philippe confirms his lead, with between 19% and 21% voting intentions, where his distant successor at Matignon remains confined to 15%. When the two men are tested against each other, their score goes almost double (14% against 8%). Edouard Philippe’s advance is due in particular to his “ability to anchor himself more in electorates more favorable to macronism and the right”, analyzes Frédéric Dabi, general opinion director of Ifop.
Bruno Retailleau remains in the race and sits comfortably between 9% and 11% of voting intentions. The president of the Republicans is even credited with a flattering 14% in the event that he finds himself facing Marine Le Pen and Gabriel Attal. The candidacy of the ex-LR mayor of Cannes, David Lisnard (2%), does not threaten Bruno Retailleau, who remains seven points above his former ally. Added to this right-wing bloc is a sovereignist current, embodied by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, estimated at between 2% and 3%.
A shattered left, Mélenchon in the lead
On the left, divisions persist. Jean-Luc Mélenchon retains leadership in his camp, with a loyal electoral base and a successful start to the campaign, with 12% to 15% of voting intentions. He is ahead of the social-democratic family, shared between Raphaël Glucksmann (8% to 11%) and François Hollande (9%). The ecologist Marine Tondelier is given between 2.5% and 4%, while the communist Fabien Roussel is estimated between 2.5% and 3%.
In the event of a union of the left outside La France insoumise (LFI) behind François Hollande or Raphaël Glucksmann, Jean-Luc Mélenchon would climb between 14% and 15%. Conversely, the dispersion of his adversaries would, according to Frédéric Dabi, favor a “fourth April 21, 2002”, the date on which the socialist Lionel Jospin was eliminated in the first round in favor of a second round between Jean-Marie Le Pen and Jacques Chirac.
A tense political and social context
This survey comes in a context marked by dense news: France hosted the G7 in Evian, was shaken up by the Lyhanna affair and asphyxiated by a heatwave. The candidates, declared or putative, embarked on a series of meetings opened by Gabriel Attal at the end of May, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann and Bruno Retailleau, before Edouard Philippe on July 5. This sequence of militant mobilization aims to trigger momentum and stand out in the polls, while the campaign intensifies as the presidential election approaches.
The Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud Radio thus outlines a profoundly recomposed political landscape, where the nationalist camp reaches levels never seen under the Fifth Republic, the classic right tries to resist and the left remains fragmented. Less than a year before the election, the dynamic seems clearly favorable to Jordan Bardella and the National Rally.
