The decline in births continues in France, reaching a threshold not seen since the Second World War in 2025, and the trend is confirmed at the start of 2026.
In 2025, the number of births reached its lowest level in France since 1942. According to INSEE, 645,000 babies were born there that year, or 2.1% less than in 2024 and 24% less than in 2010, the last high point. Excluding Mayotte, 635,343 births were recorded. This decline is part of a long-term trend, which began more than a decade ago, which shows no sign of reversal and is confirmed in the first months of 2026: in February, 48,268 births took place, or 1,724 per day on average, down 2.1% over one year.
A negative natural balance, a first since the war
The year 2025 also marks a major demographic turning point: for the first time since the end of the Second World War, the French natural balance has become negative, at -6,000. In 2025, 651,000 people died, or 1.5% more than in 2024. Life expectancy at birth, however, continues to increase, to 85.9 years for women and 80.3 years for men. men.
As of January 1, 2026, the French population is estimated at 69.1 million inhabitants, or 0.25% more than a year earlier. But aging is confirmed: those aged 65 and over now represent 22.2% of the inhabitants, almost as much as those under 20 (22.5%).
Fertility at its lowest in a century
The total fertility indicator (TFR), which measures the number of children per woman, continues to fall: after 1.61 in 2024, it stands at 1.56 in 2025, its lowest level since the end of the First World War. The decline affects almost all regions; only the Pays de la Loire and Réunion show a stable number of births, while Martinique and Mayotte experience a slight increase (respectively +1% and +2%).
This development mainly reflects the decline in the age at first child: there are fewer and fewer mothers under 35. In 2025, 69,400 newborns have a mother under 25 years old (11% of births), compared to 111,400 in 2014 (14%). Only births to mothers aged 35 or over remain stable. The phenomenon is also generational: until women born in 1985, the final fertility reached or exceeded two children, while INSEE projections anticipate 1.93 children for women born in 1990 and 1.74 for those born in 1995.
France still leading in Europe
Despite this decline, France remains one of the most fertile countries in the European Union. In 2024, 3.6 million babies will be born there, down 19% in ten years, and the EU average TFR fell from 1.54 to 1.34 over the period. With 1.61 children per woman in 2024, France ranks second in Europe, behind only Bulgaria (1.71). The decline remains moderate in countries like Germany or Greece, while those where the TFR was already low, like Spain or Malta (1.01, the lowest in the EU), continued to decline.
Despite measures intended to boost the birth rate, such as birth leave, France is unable to stem this trend. The “demographic rearmament” desired by the authorities remains for the moment without significant effect.
