The organization highlights the resilience of the labor market in the face of the rise of AI, despite difficulties for young people and wage stagnation in certain countries.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is not causing a “widespread decline” in employment in OECD countries, where unemployment rates are near historic lows, according to the organization’s 2026 Employment Outlook report, released Tuesday. This observation from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development comes as AI is transforming many sectors and fueling questions about its long-term impact.
A resilient labor market in the face of AI
The unemployment rate in the OECD area stands at 4.9% in May 2026, close to its historic low (4.8% in 2023). The organization projects that employment will continue to grow by 0.3% this year and 0.6% next year. “So far, there is no evidence that increased use of artificial intelligence by businesses is leading to a widespread decline in labor demand,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. “While AI is changing the skills companies are looking for, for now it is not weakening employment prospects for young people or for workers generally. AI is reshaping work rather than reducing it,” he added.
The labor market is also showing resilience in the face of the war in the Middle East, which has caused a surge in energy prices. “Job creation has remained robust in the face of the effects of the ongoing conflict,” noted Mathias Cormann, noting that the number of vacant jobs, which has been declining since 2022 after the post-pandemic peak, “has generally stabilized” since the escalation.
Signals of slowdown and lagging wages
However, the picture remains mixed. The OECD notes “new signs of slowdown”, with a contraction in employment growth and the activity rate, and notes that around two thirds of member countries have recorded a slight increase in unemployment. The report also underlines that “the entry of young people into the labor market is particularly difficult”. If the progress of generative AI is “undoubtedly not unrelated”, the organization specifies that this trend predates its rise, which suggests deeper causes.
There remains a major downside on remuneration. “Overall, the employment outlook is positive, but many workers have not yet seen the full benefits of a dynamic labor market, including reflected in their pay,” said the Secretary General. “In around a third of OECD countries, real wages are below the level recorded five years ago.” The organization, which brings together 38 countries in America, Europe, Asia and Oceania, publishes this report each year, a reference for assessing major international trends in the labor market.
