The surge in fuel prices since the end of last February has suddenly accelerated the economic decisions of households and businesses in favor of carbon-free mobility.
The surge in fuel prices since February 28, a corollary of tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has suddenly accelerated the economic decisions of households and businesses in favor of low-carbon mobility. The signals are converging, whether it is the very strong increase in sales of new or used electric vehicles or the modal shift towards the train leading to saturation on certain lines, against a backdrop of sobriety in mobility constrained by this supply shock.
The question that can reasonably be asked, however, is whether these changes in the behavior of economic actors are part of a movement that will last over time or whether, like a Bengal fire, it will go out when the weapons in the Middle East have fallen silent and the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened to navigation.
Necessity is law (of sobriety)!
How have the French reacted to the sudden increase in fuel prices observed since the end of February? To take just one example, the SP95-E10 reached €2.038 per liter at the beginning of May, or +32 cents (+18.47%) compared to February 27, 2026 according to AFP calculations taken up by “Prix du barrel”.
Faced with this shock, it is interesting to note 3 points.
The first of them, in March 2026, during which the French are not yet reducing their consumption. According to figures from UFIP Énergies et Mobilités, deliveries of road fuels in March 2026 were even up 1.1% compared to March 2025, despite the increasing price surge over this month. This phase corresponds to what economists call demand inertia behavior: households have not yet reorganized their trips.
The data published at the beginning of May, on the other hand, show a spectacular inflection from the month of April: according to declarations made by the Ministry of the Economy at the beginning of May, fuel consumption in France fell by 11% in April 2026 compared to April 2025. Road fuel deliveries recorded a drop of 9.1% over one year, described as “unprecedented” by several sector observers. Taking the last twelve months as a reference, total road fuel consumption fell by 1.5%, which reflects a recent acceleration of the trend.
Third stage, that of a much more marked change in behavior. The most recent data in fact suggest that the decline would have become even more pronounced: between May 1 and 10, 2026, fuel consumption would have fallen by 30% compared to the same period in 2025. Over the first twenty days of April, diesel volumes were already down 13.9% compared to 2025.
Electric vehicles: has the tipping point been reached?
The sudden increase in fuel prices has been accompanied by another movement, namely the explosion in sales of electric vehicles, whether new or used, in recent months.
Thus, the number of electric vehicles registered in France between January and April 2026 recorded an increase of almost 50%, going from the figure of 100,000 over the same period observed in 2025 to 148,302. In the month of April alone, sales of 100% electric vehicles amounted to 40,429, an increase of more than 42% compared to sales recorded in April 2025.
This growth in sales of new electric vehicles is all the more notable as it takes place in a context of sluggishness in the automobile market for passenger vehicles between January and April 2026 (-1.6%), according to data communicated by the Automobile Platform (PFA).
This same development is observed for sales of used electric vehicles which recorded growth of +62% in April 2026 compared to the month of April 2025. The market share of used electric vehicles stood at 6.1% in April 2026 compared to 3.3% in April 2025.
Even if the “Hormuz” effect deserves to be qualified with regard to the reference period, sales of used electric vehicles increased by 27% in the first quarter of 2026, in reference to that of 2025.
Is this trend capable of accelerating the timetable for electrification of the motor vehicle fleet in France and thus serving the objectives of the national low carbon strategy (SNBC 3)? Not really, the total shift does not occur before the years 2045 – 2055, even in a very strong acceleration scenario.
The error would in fact be to extrapolate current sales of electric vehicles to the rolling stock, by not distinguishing flows (annual sales) from stocks (the 40 million vehicles already in circulation).
Even if 100% of new cars sold tomorrow were electric, we would still have to gradually replace the tens of millions of existing thermal vehicles. However, the French keep their cars for longer and longer – a car frequently remains in circulation between 15 and 20 years – the average age of the fleet exceeds 11 years.
Let’s practice a simple calculation.
According to data published by the Public Statistics Service for Energy, Transport, Housing and the Environment (SDES), France had 39.7 million private cars in circulation on January 1, 2025. The annual renewal is of the order of 2 million vehicles.
As of January 1, 2025, 95% of the French rolling stock remained thermal or thermal hybrid. 100% electric vehicles still represented only 2.9% of the rolling stock on that same date, or around 1.2 to 1.3 million cars. At the same time, more than 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles were already on the road in France by the end of 2025.
Let’s assume that from 2035, almost all new vehicle sales will be electric vehicles, in accordance with the objective set by European regulations.
In this case :
- 2035: the park remains mainly thermal;
- 2040: electric could represent between 40 and 60% of the fleet;
- 2045: electric would largely become the majority;
- 2050: thermal energy would become marginal.
This range is consistent with several prospective studies by RTE and the automotive industry. The electricity network manager is also working on hypotheses where electric vehicles would represent around 95% of the French automobile fleet by 2050.
A modal shift towards the train observed… but sustainable?
Sobriety and renewed interest in electric vehicles are not the only effects observed in terms of changing household behavior.
The most interesting fact is that the drop in fuel consumption occurs at a time when sales of SNCF tickets would have increased by 14% in April 2026 compared to April 2025, as well as those of TER tickets by 12% over this same reference period. Figures to be considered with caution, particularly for SNCF ticket sales in March – April, the month of May 2026 with its 4 public holidays having this year been particularly favorable for getaways of all kinds. Without having any evidentiary value, these figures can be interpreted as a converging index of changes in household behavior.
Towards a mobility of sovereignty in response to our geopolitical vulnerabilities
Paradoxically, the geopolitical shock caused by the military escalation in the Middle East seems to have accelerated certain changes in behavior that several years of national and European public policies were still struggling to produce on a large scale.
On closer inspection, however, this phenomenon looks less like a simple energy transition than what can be called an accelerated substitution under geopolitical constraints. France remains dependent on imports for most of its oil consumption, directly exposing households and businesses to geopolitical tensions affecting the world’s major maritime routes.
In other words, it is not only climate motivations that today seem to be pushing households towards reducing travel, electric vehicles, carpooling or even the train.
Energy security, predictability of mobility costs and reduced exposure to geopolitical shocks are becoming drivers at least as powerful as decarbonization.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not only driven up prices; it has once again revealed our geoeconomic vulnerabilities against which electric vehicles and trains are seen as means of reducing them and gaining sovereignty in terms of mobility.
