The medium-term balance sheet remains stable, but the very long-term deficit jumps, requiring a gradual increase in the average starting age.
The Pension Orientation Council (COR) will raise its forecast for the long-term structural deficit of the pension system: 2.4% of GDP in 2070, compared to 1.4% in the 2025 report. This draft 2026 report, consulted on Monday June 8, 2026 by AFP and France Télévisions, must be approved by the members of the COR on Thursday June 11, 2026.
Deficit trajectory and adjustment lever
In the medium term, the forecasts remain unchanged: 0.2% of GDP in 2030 and 0.9% in 2045. The increase in the deficit is therefore mainly concentrated beyond 2045, when the cumulative effect of aging weighs more.
In its reference scenario, the COR relies on the sole lever of the starting age to ensure structural balance: the average age would increase from 64.4 years in 2030 to 65.8 years in 2045 and 67.6 years in 2070, via a progressive postponement. The target for 2070 was 66.5 years in the 2025 report.
Two main factors explain this upward revision of the deficit: on the one hand, the social partners adopted new “more favorable” rules for the revaluation of Agirc-Arrco supplementary pensions from 2038. On the other hand, the COR lowered its fertility hypothesis to 1.45 children per woman (compared to 1.8 previously) to take into account the drop in the birth rate, which accentuates aging and weighs on the financing of the schemes.
