The quarterly barometer presented at VivaTech anticipates an unprecedented decline in hiring for the period from June to September 2026.
Manpower’s quarterly barometer, presented Wednesday at VivaTechindicates that “hiring prospects will be at their lowest since 2021 in the coming months”. This is the first time this indicator has gone into the red since 2021.
According to the study, the net employment forecast should fall by 2 points in the third quarter of 2026, after increases of 15 points in the second quarter and 30 points in the first quarter of 2026. The average for the year 2025 was an increase of 30 points.
Decline in hiring intentions
At the same time, 24% of companies surveyed plan to hire between June and September 2026, compared to 30% in the second quarter of 2026 and 31% in the third quarter of 2025, a drop of 7 points in one year. The study is based on a consultation in April with more than 1,000 French companies from all sectors.
Manpower argues that “the conflict in the Middle East” has “pushed companies to be cautious”. The study recalls that a peace agreement was announced Sunday evening between Washington and Tehran.
In its press release, Manpower underlines: “The first quarter of 2026 marks a halt in French economic dynamics, with negative growth (-0.1 point of GDP) after the +0.2 point recorded at the end of 2025. Domestic demand weakened under the effect of a decline in household consumption (-0.1 point) and a decline in investment (-0.4 point)”.
The barometer highlights that it is “companies with more than 5,000 employees, more internationally positioned, which are most restrictive on recruitment”, while the phenomenon is “less marked for more modest companies, anchored locally”.
The study specifies: “The most affected are the food industry, luxury goods, and even the automobile industry.” Conversely, she notes: “Aerospace, defense, energy and even rail are doing well, with a positive hiring balance. They are driven by the geopolitical context and strong investments in these strategic areas.”
Benoît Derigny, boss of Manpower France, observes: “There is undoubtedly a decline. The link with the crisis in the Middle East seems clear. Our MEOS barometer already showed a decline in the second quarter, a trend which is continuing and gradually taking hold.” He adds: “All companies are in a situation of caution and waiting. The level of uncertainty remains present and weighs on decisions.”
On the request, he notes: “Households are also affected by this climate of uncertainty. They are more careful with their spending. Even more so with the return of inflation.”
Concerning future needs, he indicates: “There is already a shortage of profiles for manual and industrial professions. And this will intensify. The aerospace and defense sector is targeting 250,000 hires by 2030. These are clearly professions of the future.”
In perspective
The Banque de France, in its Bulletin 245/4 (March-April 2023), indicated that between May 2021 and March 2023, the share of companies declaring that they were experiencing recruitment difficulties increased from 36% to 52%, and that 350,000 jobs remained unfilled in the fourth quarter of 2022. According to the same source, despite the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the labor market had been exceptionally dynamic in 2021 and 2022, but burdened by recruitment difficulties linked mainly to qualification problems.
